Psychologen sind die besseren Spekulanten als Ökonomen
zu diesem Ergebnis kommt zumindest eine Studie der Herren Professor Jörg Oechssler der Universität Heidelberg mit seinem Co-Autor Dr. Andreas Roider Universität Bonn un Dr. Matthias Drehmann von der Bank of England. Unterstützt wurde das ganze von McKinsey.
Über 6500 Teilnehmer fanden an dieser Studie fest, in der untersucht wurde wie sich Marktteilnehmer wirklich verhalten. Damit ein “realistisches” Verhalten der Probanden wahrscheinlich wurde, wurden Preisgelder von 11.000 Euro ausgelobt.
‘The players were able to decide in favour of two fictitious shares A and B,’ Dr. Roider explains. ‘Only one share turned up a profit at the end of the game, the other being a dud.’ Before making a decision to buy each participant was given a tip by their investment banker, e.g. ‘Share A is a winner.’
As soon as a player had decided in favour of a specific share, the share rose in price. ‘The players could now buy their shares consecutively,’ Dr. Roider says. ‘The first one was only able to rely on the investment banker’s tip. The subsequent buyers, by contrast, were also able to see from the share index what shares their predecessors had chosen.
Das oft beschriebene Herdentrieb Verhalten konnte nicht beobachtet werden.
In the experiment, however, those involved by no means followed blindly the behaviour of previous investors. – quite the contrary. As a rule the participants mainly allowed themselves to be influenced in their choice of share by their adviser’s tip. In fact, many investors made a conscious decision to buck the trend, thereby contributing to a stabilisation of the share prices. ‘This can of course be perfectly sensible if you think that the share is currently overpriced and that this is partly due to the irrational behaviour of earlier investors,’ says Dr. Roider.
Wirklich interessant ist natürlich dieser Abschnitt
The psychologists, particularly, seemed to ascribe share prices to these sorts of ‘psychological’ effects. Their intuition about the possibly irrational behaviour of other investors meant that they made bigger profits. By contrast, players who had studied Physics seemed to rely on the cool rationality of other participants – and thus fared worse.
Die Psychologen machten im Durchschnitt höhere Gewinne als ihre Mitspieler. Besonders auffällig war das bessere Abschneiden gegenüber kühler Rationalität.
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